(NewsNation) — The Trump administration’s continuing fixation on Greenland and related rumblings about a potential takeover of the autonomous Danish territory are reflected in an “event contract” that currently puts the chances of a U.S. invasion at 10%.
So far, market players have put a collective $376,000 into the new Polymarket contract, “Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?” On Sunday, shares against the event happening were going for 91 cents, while shares predicting “yes” were selling for 10 cents.
Observers say prediction markets, which so far have skirted online gambling regulations, can reflect the so-called wisdom of the crowd when it comes to questions of the day.
Some officials in the White House have insisted Greenland would be a key security asset for the U.S. and serve as a check to China and Russia. European leaders have said an American move on Greenland, besides being an act of aggression, would spell the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Polymarket says the question will resolve to “yes” if the U.S. military establishes “control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
The online platform is hosting similar contracts about a U.S.-Greenland convergence. The broader question “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” presumably includes the possibility Greenland could come under American sovereignty willingly. This event contract gauges the chances at 17%.