EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – President Trump taught a Venezuelan dictator a lesson when he plucked him from his country and into an American courtroom days ago.
What happened to Nicolas Maduro has sent chills to enemies and reluctant U.S. partners throughout the world, analysts say. But how likely is Trump to keep going after more high-profile alleged criminals on foreign soil?
One informed observer says leaders in Colombia, Cuba and Mexico might have reason to worry.
“There’s potential for something like this to happen again,” said Michael Ballard, director of intelligence for Virginia-based Global Guardian.
President Gustavo Petro has been defiant of Trump over deportation flights to his country and accusations that cocaine production in Colombia has soared under his watch. Petro denounced U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the former guerrilla fighter threatened to take up arms again if Trump looks his way.
But Petro’s term is up in August and he cannot seek reelection. He’ll be out of the picture. That brings the conversation back to Mexico.
Maduro’s indictment in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York makes numerous references to illicit business deals in Mexico involving his associates and the Sinaloa cartel and the old Zetas. It mentions the use of diplomatic passports to fly drug proceeds out of Mexico and drug shipments from Venezuela docking at Mexican ports. The indictment covers activities from 1999 to 2025.
Beyond that is the fact Jalisco cartel kingpin Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera and Sinaloa cartel leaders Ivan Archivaldo Guzman Salazar and Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar remain free. Their transnational criminal organizations are primarily responsible for flooding the U.S. with illicit fentanyl, U.S. officials have said.
“I think the most likely impact you will see in Mexico is either utilizing this type of tactics (extraction) with all this prowess the United States has with Delta Force and those operators to fly in under cover of darkness to snatch cartel kingpins and bring them back under the assumption they are fugitives from justice,” or the threat of doing so, Ballard said Tuesday on Border Report Live.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in recent days has dismissed such possibility, saying her country is cooperating with the United States on security matters. She is also using the shield of sovereignty, which U.S. troops brushed aside in 1846 and 1916.
Ballard said Mexico is not Venezuela but believes Trump won’t hesitate to use his newfound leverage.
“I think this more likely will be used as a threat to the Mexican government in future negotiations over migration policy, trade deals and over border control,” he said. “He’ll be using this pressure to say, ‘Hey, this isn’t just something we think we can do, this is something we know we can do.
“‘You don’t want Blackhawks and Delta Force operators landing in Mexico and embarrassing the country; if you can’t bring these people to justice, we will.’”
Ballard said El Mencho and the Guzmans so far have proven more resourceful than the Mexican government.
“They have pretty unbelievable technological resources at their disposal. They’re highly sophisticated when it comes to their operational security,” he said. “The other thing is there is a lot of corruption: They pay off the right people. They are protected through a system of coercion. It’s still plata o plomo (lead or silver). You can either comply with us and get paid or we’re going after your family.”
But then there’s Trump’s legendary unpredictability.
“You might see something like maybe one, either El Mencho or a Guzman son get targeted even if there are concessions granted from Mexico just to make a statement and send a message,” Ballard said. “But I don’t think you are going to see this become a routine for the U.S. military and the police operation side where every month they’re flying into Mexico and snatching somebody.”
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