(NewsNation) — A new paper calculated a solar storm could bring down the planet’s satellite system in just three days, wreaking havoc on infrastructure.
Low-earth orbit is home to around 14,000 satellites, a dramatic increase from around 4,000 in 2018. One major force behind the increased space congestion is Elon Musk’s Starlink. Satellite operators perform a delicate dance to avoid having satellites collide with each other as they orbit.
But a major solar storm could take the whole thing down in as little as three days, according to new calculations. That’s compared to the 121 days that operators would have had to avoid catastrophe in 2018.
The Earth is currently in a period of solar maximum, with solar storms sending coronal mass ejections that have resulted in views of the northern lights much farther south than normal.
Those storms can also knock out communications and navigation systems, leaving satellite operators with no way to control the thousands of objects orbiting the Earth.
New calculations found that if operators lost control, it would take just 2.8 days for a catastrophic collision to occur, creating a chain reaction of debris destroying other satellites and bringing down the entire satellite infrastructure.
Such a collision could take down systems that rely on satellites, like GPS, leave parts of space inaccessible due to debris and, in a worst-case scenario, destroy humanity’s ability to continue to explore space.
The paper, which has yet to be peer reviewed, also found that a shorter loss of control could still cause significant harm.
If operators lost control of satellites for just 24 hours, there would still be a 30% chance of setting off that chain reaction, known as Kessler Syndrome.
While recent solar storms have not caused significant damage to communications or navigation technology, it has happened in the past.
The Carrington Event of 1859 is the strongest solar storm on record. The aurora borealis was seen as far south as Florida, and the storm wreaked havoc on telegraph systems in Europe and North America.
With today’s advanced technology, scientists believe a solar storm of similar magnitude could cause continent-wide electrical blackouts and take weeks or longer to fix.