(NewsNation) — An asteroid could potentially hit Earth in eight years — though the chances are very small, according to scientists.
The European Space Agency said as of Monday, the probability of the asteroid named 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is 2%. On Saturday, that figure was 2.2%.
Estimating the likelihood of an asteroid coming in contact with Earth “isn’t a completely precise science because, of course, any object that’s out there orbiting or flying close to the Earth and our solar system is going to be influenced by other objects out there,” former NASA astronaut Leroy Chiao said on “NewsNation Live” on Monday.
“Every day, we have objects from space entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Most of it burns out, but some big pieces come down,” Chiao said.
Chiao said astronomers track these objects, make observations and refine their estimates of how close they will come to Earth.
“I wouldn’t focus on this particular asteroid,” Chiao said. “I think it just caught everyone’s attention because it went from 1% to 2%, but that could easily go back down.”
In fact, the risk forecast could even be reduced to zero, the European Space Agency said.
“Basically, the more observations we get, the more we can localize and confirm the asteroid’s trajectory, which is most likely to turn out to be a flyby, and not an impact,” the agency said on its website.