(NewsNation) — The odds keep shifting that an asteroid big enough to wipe out a city will collide with Earth in seven years, according to NASA.

The chance of an actual impact is still quite slim.

When did NASA find the 2024 YR4 asteroid?

NASA first discovered “2024 YR4,” the 130-to-300-foot-wide asteroid, in December 2024, and found it only had roughly a 1% chance of impacting Earth on its trajectory, NewsNation’s Los Angeles affiliate KTLA reported.

On Jan. 27, 2025, the asteroid surpassed a 1% chance of hitting Earth, an “important threshold,” according to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

“Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%,” NASA said in a release.

Chances of 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth

On Feb. 7, the asteroid’s chances of hitting our planet grew to 2.3%, and on Feb. 18, there was a 3.1% chance that 2024 YR4 will impact Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

In an update shared by NASA on Wednesday, Feb. 20, the asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth decreased to 1.5%, based on new observations that the full moon has passed, CNN reported.

At one point, there was a 96.9% chance that the asteroid would miss Earth, though NASA said this rare asteroid has a significant risk, rating it at Torino Scale 3, a ranking of potential impacts.

As of Feb. 20, there is a 99% chance the asteroid will pass Earth safely in seven years.

“In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia,” JPL said in a release.

NASA said its James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025 “to better assess the asteroid’s size.”