(The Hill) — Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi cautioned against drawing premature conclusions about the strength of the economy, warning the recently announced 4.3 percent GDP growth is “fragile” because of a lack of job growth.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street,” Zandi celebrated last week’s lower-than-expected jobless claims numbers, which were released Wednesday, as “really good news,” noting, “layoffs remain very low.”

But he said if layoffs begin, the economy could be at risk.

“Businesses still aren’t hiring, and, as a result, there is no job growth. Job growth, at best, is flat, and, I suspect, is even down after revision,” Zandi said. “So fortunately, businesses aren’t laying off. That’s the key to keeping the economy moving forward and avoiding a recession.”

Zandi said even Tuesday’s report showing 4.3 percent GDP growth in the third quarter — which spans the three months through the end of September — is not worth celebrating without seeing meaningful job growth.

“It’s fragile because we’re not creating jobs,” he said. “I mean, I don’t know how we can feel comfortable about the way things are going if we’re not creating jobs.”

Zandi noted the unemployment rate is “still low” but is rising and is “meaningfully above” most estimates of where it should be. Wage growth is also slowing, Zandi said.

“That, to me, is a very fragile situation,” Zandi continued. “I mean, if anything doesn’t stick exactly to script, and consumers pull back a little bit, then, you know, we’re going to see some job loss … and then layoffs, and that’s the fodder for an economic downturn.

“So I don’t know that I’d take a whole lot of solace in the 4.3. I mean, I think what really is key here is jobs,” he added.

The chief economist said various factors could influence the trajectory of the economy going into 2026. He said if Congress passes a stimulus bill or if the Supreme Court rules against President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and Trump can’t “find another way to raise tariffs, that would be helpful to the economy.”

On the other hand, Zandi said he’s concerned about the effect of artificial intelligence. Either productivity booms, creating more job losses, or investors are wrong about the potential of AI, potentially triggering a market correction.

“So there’s risks on both sides of this fragile growth that we’re experiencing,” he said.