CHICAGO (NewsNation) — A historian who’s correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 says that if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the 2024 election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will benefit.
Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, has used a formula of 13 true-or-false questions, or “keys,” in his winning predictions.
One of Lichtman’s negative “keys” against the party currently in the White House is a significant third-party campaign, as he says it’s a sign of people’s discontent with the current government.
“The basis of my keys to the White House is that it’s governing, not campaigning,” Lichtman said. “The disappearing RFK campaign then wipes out a possible negative key against the incumbent party.”
While Lichtman said Friday on “NewsNation Live” that he’s not ready to make a prediction yet on who will with the presidential election, Kennedy ending his campaign is a “positive development” for Democrats.
Allan Lichtman’s keys to the White House
Here are Lichtman’s 13 keys, or factors, that he says can determine who wins the White House:
- Party mandate
- Party contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military policy failure
- Foreign/military policy success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma