NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

Programing Alert: George Will On America airs Christmas Eve at 8 pm…set your DVRs. 

Old Rules

Assumptions are dangerous things in politics.

• Like you can’t trash a war hero and be president 
• Or you can’t sleep with a porn star, pay her off and be president.
• Lesson: Assumptions are true until they are not – and the last group to believe them gets rolled. 

Democrats are working under a few assumptions:

• 1. The American people will buy the coming media hysteria that a government shutdown is bad.
• 2. The public will buy the spin that it’s the Republicans’ fault.
• Popcorn: Democrats seem confident to sit back.
  • Hold Republicans’ feet to the fire on the pork barrel buffet deal made by the Republican leadership.
  • And if there is no deal by Friday night, let the government shut down and blame Republicans.

Look back: This is the same party (Democrats) that assumed telling America that Trump was Hitler would work. 

Look Forward: The MSNBC banners tell you their coming talking points.

• “Trump opposes funding bill, pushes govt shutdown closer.”
• “Shutdown nears after Musk and Trump kill bipartisan bill.” 

Burn it down: For an election that demanded change, how do Republicans lose while saying they will shut down the government until there is change? 

• The American public is angry at the government and the establishment.
  • They might like tearing the establishment down or at least shutting it down.

Trump’s view: From ABC News’ Jonathan Karl: “In a conversation a few minutes ago, @realDonaldTrump told me, ‘There won’t be anything approved unless the debt ceiling is done with.’”

He wants the debt ceiling eliminated or extended.

• “If we don’t get it, then we’re going to have a shut down, but it’ll be a Biden shutdown, because shutdowns only inure to the person who’s president,” Trump told Karl.

• Strategy: Trump knows that Democrats can extract a high price from him in June when the debt ceiling runs out – so he figures if there is going to be a showdown, it’s better to have it before he takes office in January.

• JMart speaks: From intrepid political reporter Jonathan Martin of Politico: “Donald Trump making the Freedom Caucus vote for a debt ceiling increase as a MAGA loyalty test is the Christmas gift we deserve.”

Oh, the irony: The party of fiscal responsibility eliminating the debt ceiling before any discussion of meaningfully reducing spending is pretty rich.  

Fun question: Can you have a big inauguration during a shutdown? 

Watch tonight: George Will on the potential hubris of Democrats (again) underestimating Trump’s understanding of the American electorate. 

• David Drucker of The Dispatch with new insights into the MAGA leaders more powerful than anybody but Trump himself.
  • Elon Musk, Charlie Kirk or Donald Trump Jr.
• Rep. Kat Cammack, R-Fla., joins us to discuss who Republicans in Congress are actually listening to! 

Jill’s Revenge

President Joe Biden has thirty-two days left in office – The Daily Mail reports a “vengeful” Jill Biden will spend them settling scores against: 

• Former president Barack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris and speaker emerita Nancy Pelosi.
• The palace intrigue is real and fun to talk about. 
• BUT: Suddenly everybody wants to write and talk about how the White House (and friends in the media) covered up Joe Biden’s mental and physical condition.
  • A deeply sourced Wall Street Journal article offers a surprising number of on-the-record comments about: “How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge.”
• Wait, what: This isn’t about how a bill got passed or how the president negotiated a new treaty – this is a four-year cover-up of the health of the world’s most powerful man.
  • Democrats in 2020 said you need to elect Biden to stop COVID and stop the lying – aka to protect democracy.
• They won: Democrats then proceeded to spend four years lying and covering up Biden’s health.
  • He had trouble:
    • Walking.
    • Completing thoughts.
    • Staying awake.
    • BASIC STUFF 

• Long list: A who’s who of D.C. told us in private that Biden did gymnastics while solving the country’s problems.
  • Cabinet secretaries.
  • The media.
  • His wife.
  • His vice president.
  • His chief of staff. 

Zoom out: There is no greater threat to democracy than lying to the American public for four years about a diminishing president and having his wife and chief of staff act as president. 

A Few More Things!

• The accused UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin, Luigi Mangione, is back in NYC after waiving extradition.
  • Eyal Yakoby, a senior at the University of Pennsylvania, joins us on the similarities between those celebrating Luigi Mangione and the pro-Hamas folks on America’s college campuses.

• AND: Bird flu – yes, it’s real.
  • A state of emergency has been declared in California and someone in a Louisiana hospital with a bad case.
  • Dr. Ashish K. Jha, former White House COVID response coordinator, on whether this is like Christmas 2019 as people got sick in Wuhan, China! 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.