NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.
State of play:
- 19 days to the election
- Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +2.7, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
- Polymarket betting odds: 61.1 to 38.7 in favor of Trump.
Greetings from the Silver State — no, I didn’t hit the slot machines before baggage claim in the Las Vegas airport, but spotty Wi-Fi means an abbreviated War Notes!
- DVR reminder: At 10 p.m. ET, our affiliate station KLAS in Vegas hosts the Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown Senate debate.
- Senate state of play: Rosen +5
- Nevada isn’t one of the Senate battleground frontlines
- If Trump continues to surge, big Democratic money will flow to Rosen as Democrats try to protect any seats possible in the Senate to check Trump’s power.
Why we are here: In addition to the Senate debate, Nevada could easily decide the presidential election.
- Watch tonight: Our man at the magic wall, Connell McShane, will start a series tonight taking you through the paths to 270 that run through Nevada.
- Do the math: if Harris and Trump split the blue wall … it will get very interesting.
Microcosm: The smallest of the swing states gives us everything.
- The Latino vote is moving to Trump, according to The New York Times.
- Why does the immigration issue work for Trump with Latinos?
- Watch Trump at the Univision town hall double down on migrants “eating things.”
- No taxes on tips. Forbes calls it a “bad idea with a long history.”
- We will be at the Lindo Michoacan Desert Inn Mexican restaurant to figure out if waitresses believe no taxes on tips will actually happen.
- The fight over clean energy.
- Plus, Nevada is way more than just the casinos of Vegas and Reno.
National referendum: The Nevada governor just supported women on the University of Nevada, Reno, volleyball team who refused to play against a biological male on an opposing team.
- The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board calls it a “sleeper issue” in Senate races across the country.
The Smartest People I Know
What I am watching: Reports from Israel say the IDF killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.
- Prayers answered: The world is a better, safer, more just place!
- Look forward: Sinwar’s death could bring a hostage deal and Hamas capitulation.
- 4D chess: Iran orders/pushes Hamas remnants in Gaza to give up the hostages to help Harris — they want her over Trump.
- Irony alert: Netanyahu defying Biden/Harris and refusing to back down over the past year ends up giving Harris a huge win right before the election.
Before the Sinwar news, I woke up to messages from the two smartest people I know:
- George Will and a longtime friend who shall remain nameless
- The friend sent me Will’s latest column.
- Will writes, “A new axis is sowing global disorder. The U.S. presidential campaign is what reckless disregard looks like.”
- And then sent the following four articles.
- Politico: The North Koreans are sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine for Russia.
- The Washington Post: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (reportedly) telling the Biden administration Israel won’t strike Iran’s nuclear or oil targets.
- The New York Times: China is making the most aggressive moves toward Taiwan in history.
- The Associated Press: The U.S. is using our B2 stealth bombers to fly halfway around the world and hit Houthi weapons facilities in Yemen.
- You should read Will’s column.
- My friend summed it up a little more bluntly:
- American kids will be involved and die
- The American economy will be affected
- A lot of bull💩 will come to America
- The next commander in chief will have to deal with it.
- My friend summed it up a little more bluntly:
My thought: As Will points out, much like in 1940, America is whistling a happy tune as war clouds gather.
Watch tonight: George Will will discuss America picking the next commander in chief — in other words, we have far bigger problems than we realize.
Playing To Win
Kamala Harris appears to have learned from Clinton’s mistakes of 2016.
- Rather than head fakes about putting resources in Iowa and ignoring Michigan, Harris is all in on the blue wall; today, she has three events in Wisconsin.
- 1:20 pm ET: campaign event in Milwaukee
- 4:15 pm ET: campaign event in La Crosse.
- 7:15 pm ET: campaign event in Green Bay.
- This will be her sixth visit to Wisconsin since launching her campaign this summer.
What I am hearing: The Fox poll puts Trump up 2 points, inside the margin of error.
- Maybe he’s believing his own press releases.
What I am thinking: Is Trump acting like Hillary Clinton in 2016 with his Madison Square Garden rally this weekend?
Watch tonight: Chris Stirewalt with us from Nevada on who is really head.
- What is really happening with the numbers as Trump is unquestionably doing better than this time in 2016 and 2020?
- Historically, Trump outperformed his polls by two to four points – will that happen again?
- Is there a silent Harris vote?
- Here is The New York Times analysis on where the polls will be wrong.
- Spin machines: Unquestionably, Republicans appear more confident than Democrats about their chances
- Be smart: How much of what we are seeing is spin to drive turnout?
Missed Opportunity
As we’ve told you for months now, Harris and other Democrats tell us Trump is an existential threat that must be stopped but have refused to compromise their progressive dreams to stop him.
Case in point: Last night on Fox News, Harris had the perfect opportunity to…
- Throw Bret Baier off his game
- Tack to the center with some meaningful concessions to centrist viewers on:
- Immigration
- Boys in girls sports and locker rooms
- She refused — it’s hard to take someone seriously about their warnings when they don’t do what’s easily in their control to solve the problem.
The obsession from the Left and Right over the Harris interview with Baier shows just how sheltered our politicians have become.
- Sitting down for a tough but fair interview is something Republicans do every day — just ask Senator JD Vance or Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
- But more importantly, it’s something someone running for president or as president should do at least weekly. It makes America better.
It’s hard to see how the interview moves the needle that much. Republicans and Trump called it a disaster, and Team Harris wants us to think politicians will be studying it for years.
The truth: You could see what you wanted — both sides got clips to push out.
- Ask yourself: How much have you seen of the interview today? There is a reason for that.
Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.