(NewsNation) — It’s award season, and all eyes are on who will take home the Academy Award next year for best actor.
Nominations have yet to be announced, but prediction market Kalshi reports that many already consider Timothée Chalamet a likely winner for his first Oscar.
According to Kalshi, Chalamet has a 43% chance of winning the Academy Award for best actor for his role in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” in which he plays American table tennis champion Marty Reisman.
Academy Award winner Leonardo DiCaprio comes in behind Chalamet for his role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s dark comedy “One Battle After Another.”
Timothee Chalamet accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role for “A Complete Unknown” during the 31st annual Screen Actors Guild Awards on Feb. 23, 2025, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello) 
Leonardo DiCaprio arrives at the Governors Awards on Jan. 9, 2024, at the Dolby Ballroom in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello) 
Wagner Moura attends The Actors Night hosted by The Actor Awards and ELLE at Chateau Marmont on Dec. 11, 2025, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Matt Winkelmeyer/FilmMagic) 
Ethan Hawke arrives for a taping of “Late Night with Seth Meyers” on Oct. 27, 2025. (Photo by: Lloyd Bishop/NBC via Getty Images) 
Michael B. Jordan arrives at the world premiere of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” on Oct. 26, 2022, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo by Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP)
Oddsmakers think DiCaprio has a 26% chance of winning his second Oscar for playing a paranoid former revolutionary who lives his life off the grid with his daughter.
Coming in third place with 16% is Wagner Moura for his role in “The Secret Agent,” according to Kalshi data.
Rounding out the top five is Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon,” with 13%, and Michael B. Jordan for his dual role in Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” with 3%.