(NewsNation) — As inflation continues to moderate, retirees are likely to see a smaller bump in their Social Security benefits in 2025.

The latest estimate from The Senior Citizens League projects Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be 2.57% in 2025 — down from 3.2% this year.

How inflation impacts cost-of-living adjustment

The lower COLA is due to easing inflation, which dropped to 2.9% year-over-year in July, the lowest level in more than three years.

A 2.6% COLA bump would be the smallest increase for seniors since 2021, but it’s not set in stone. The next couple of months are crucial because the government uses third-quarter data to calculate the COLA.

If inflation accelerates in August and September, that would be reflected in retirees’ 2025 benefit increase. However, if the rise in consumer prices eases further, the COLA could be lower than today’s estimate.

How is Social Security COLA figured?

Each year, the government determines the COLA by comparing the average inflation rate from July to September to the same period the year before. The official announcement is made in October before showing up in your January check.

How many people receive Social Security benefits?

This year, almost 68 million people will receive a Social Security benefit each month. The vast majority of beneficiaries, roughly 75%, are retired workers who received an average monthly check of $1,918 as of June. That’s roughly $80 more than a year ago.

Although inflation is improving, surveys suggest rising prices are still having a massive impact on seniors.

Inflation is a top concern for seniors

According to a July survey from The Senior Citizens League, 71% of seniors said that inflation depleting their savings is among their top retirement concerns. More than three-quarters, 78%, said their monthly budget for essentials like housing, food and medicine was higher than last year.