(NewsNation) — Elevated mortgage rates have kept buyers on the sidelines, and 2026 is expected to ease some of that pressure, but not by much.
Housing forecasters see the 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6% next year — lower than this year’s 6.6% average but nowhere near the sub-3% rates buyers remember from 2021.
Predictions for the average 30-year fixed rate in 2026:
- Redfin: 6.3%
- Realtor.com: 6.3%
- Zillow: Expects rates to “hold above 6%”
- National Association of Realtors: 6.0%
- Fannie Mae: 6.0%
If those forecasts prove accurate, 2026 would extend the slow drift lower that has eased borrowing costs, but not enough to materially improve affordability.
The 30-year fixed-rate averaged 6.22% as of Thursday, down from 6.60% at this point a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.
And despite the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive interest rate cut on Wednesday, mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall much further. The move was anticipated, meaning markets had largely priced it in ahead of time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored that point at a press conference, suggesting the latest quarter-point decline wouldn’t “make much of a difference” for the housing market.
“Housing supply is low,” Powell said. “Many people have very, very low mortgages from the pandemic period.”
Why mortgage rates are likely to stay around 6% in 2026
The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its decisions help shape them. And after three cuts in 2025, officials aren’t expecting to lower rates much further next year.
According to projections released Wednesday, policymakers see just one cut in 2026, a sign that borrowing costs will likely remain near current levels rather than fall substantially in the months ahead.
“Given the underlying economic fundamentals of 3% inflation coupled with a weakening — but not recessionary — labor market, the Fed is likely to hold steady in the near future,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, said on its website.
That’s not necessarily bad news for the U.S. economy. A sharp drop in mortgage rates could be a sign that inflation or the job market is heading in the wrong direction.
Instead, housing economists expect a slow, modest decline. Redfin says mortgage rates could dip below 6% “occasionally” next year, but “not for any meaningful period.”
Realtor.com also expects affordability to improve, though only slightly, as the market moves toward what it calls a “healthier” balance.
“The path back toward historic levels of affordability will be gradual, but 2026 takes a solid step in the right direction,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.