(NewsNation) — Mortgage rates in 2025 are expected to remain above 6%, according to multiple industry forecasts.
“Even by the end of next year, it’s hard to see sub 6% mortgage rates,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, which predicts the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will range between 6% and 6.5% next year.
Various mortgage rate predictions
Bankrate predicts mortgage rates will fall to 6.5% by the end of next year, down 0.5% from the end of 2024.
By the end of 2025, Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride also predicts that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will fall 0.5% from its year-end 2024 level.
Realtor.com is slightly more optimistic, predicting mortgage rates will average 6.3% throughout 2025 and end the year at around 6.2%.
“Generally, we expect mortgage rates to ease and home prices to tick higher in the coming year, resulting in very little, if any, change in the cost to purchase a home,” said Hannah Jones, Realtor.com senior economic research analyst.
The National Association of Realtors preditcs mortgage rates will be around 6% in 2025. Meanwhile, Redfin predicts mortgage rates will remain in the high-6% range throughout 2025, with the weekly average rate fluctuating throughout the year but averaging around 6.8%.
How Donald Trump could affect the housing market
The biggest wildcard for mortgage rates next year is whether President-elect Donald Trump’s major policy initiatives will end up driving inflation and the national debt higher, which could keep mortgage rates elevated. That’s because what happens with inflation, the U.S. deficit and the economy can influence moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to price home loans.
Trump says he wants to impose tariffs on foreign goods, lower tax rates and lighten regulations, policies that could rev up the economy, but also fuel inflation and increase U.S. government debt.
Economists at Redfin cite expectations that Trump’s proposed tax cuts would increase the U.S. deficit and his tariffs plan could stoke inflation, ultimately pushing mortgage rates higher.
However, mortgage rates could drop to the low-6% range if the economy weakens or if plans for tariffs and tax cuts are dialed back, according to Redfin’s forecast.