Only a holiday miracle can prevent ObamaCare subsidies from expiring on Jan. 1, setting up a major health care fight next month when lawmakers turn their attention to a 2026 spending bill and another potential shutdown fight.  

After dueling partisan bills failed in the Senate on Thursday, attention now turns to the House, where Republican leaders are teeing up a vote on yet another partisan health care package that does not include the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. 

Rank-and-file moderates in both parties are agitating for compromise, launching a pair of Hail Mary discharge petitions this week designed to force votes over the opposition of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other GOP leaders.  

But the politics of ObamaCare have barely changed since Democrats shut down the government for more than 40 days to try to force a subsidy extension. And lawmakers in both parties say there’s almost no chance that a breakthrough deal will emerge in the six legislative days that remain before Congress leaves Washington for the long December break.  

“I would not bet on that at all. I think it’s destined for January,” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew (N.J.), a centrist Republican who’s clamoring for Congress to extend the subsidies. “Sometimes things that are extraordinary happen. But that would be extraordinary. In this place, much less six days, we can’t get things done sometimes — either party — in six months.” 

The next government funding deadline is Jan. 30, and Democrats hope to continue to elevate health care costs to mobilize voters in the 2026 midterm elections. 

Some lawmakers said they hope that the Senate’s failure can spark the bipartisan agreement that’s been absent for months. 

“Today was a bit of a messaging exercise,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told reporters Thursday. “Sometimes around the Senate, we have to demonstrate what we can’t do first before we can get to what we need to do. Today was the first step in that process of demonstrating what we can’t do. Now, let’s get on with it.” 

Murkowski was one of four GOP senators to vote for the Democratic bill, which would have extended the enhanced subsidies for another three years. She also voted for the GOP alternative, which would have let the subsidies expire and used that money to fund personal health savings accounts (HSA). 

“Americans are paying the price for this body not working together in the way that it should. And so I’m hopeful that we’ll have some fruitful conversations moving forward,” said Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.).  

But others say the damage is already done. 

“Once Jan. 1 comes and everyone is locked into their insurance proposals, you can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said after the Democratic bill failed. “Look, the Republicans voted against this 13 times. The onus is on them.” 

If the enhanced subsidies expire at the end of the month, premium costs for tens of millions of Americans enrolled in ACA plans will spike. Neither party wants to be blamed by voters if that happens, and lawmakers are still pointing fingers at each other.  

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters that the next steps are going to depend on the willingness of Democrats to compromise. 

“The question is, do the Democrats, after they got their political messaging vote done, actually want to engage in a real conversation about this? Because it didn’t seem like they had a real high level of interest in reforms,” Thune said. 

There are at least two proposals in the Senate that would pair a short-term subsidy extension with reforms such as income caps and mandatory minimum premiums, but Thune declined to put either of them up for a vote against the Democratic bill.  

In the House, Johnson is vowing to vote on a health care package next week. That GOP proposal would not extend the ObamaCare subsidies, however, and is not expected to pass in the Senate, if it even makes it that far.  

The failure of the House bill to address the expiring subsidies sparked a revolt from moderate Republicans on Wednesday, leading a group of centrists to launch a pair of discharge petitions designed to sidestep Johnson’s opposition and force the bills to the floor.  

One of those bills, sponsored by Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine), would extend the tax credits for two years and features a series of reforms to the subsidies including new income eligibility limits, the elimination of no-premium plans and the promotion of HSAs.  

The other, sponsored by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), features a one-year subsidy extension, with less stringent changes to eligibility.  

The issue has put GOP leaders in a no-win position: Either they let out-of-pocket health costs skyrocket for millions of voters ahead of next year’s midterms, or they support an Obama-era law they’ve fought for 15 years to repeal.  

But the issue also poses a dilemma for Democratic leaders. Their three-year “clean” subsidy extension bill failed, and they now face pressure to endorse one of the two bipartisan bills or risk being blamed for the impasse. 

“It’s in the Democrats’ [court], because I think it behooves them to support the bipartisan discharge petitions that are there,” Van Drew said. 

Both discharge petitions already have the endorsement of more than 10 Republicans — an extraordinary demonstration of unrest among the GOP rank and file. But if either petition is to succeed, it will require an overwhelming majority of Democrats to sign on. And many of them said they’re waiting for marching orders from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).  

“I think we’ve got to do one or the other,” said Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.). “We need to get something over to the Senate and see what they do. So it’s got to be one of those. We’ve got to discharge something. And I’ve just got to determine which one is the best.” 

Jeffries on Thursday declined to weigh in on the competing proposals.  

Democrats say they favor the Kiggans-Gottheimer proposal, because it doesn’t restrict eligibility as much as the Fitzpatrick-Golden bill. But some said they’re also holding out for any movement from Republican leaders, including President Trump, whose administration floated a two-year extension earlier in the month. 

In the Senate, Murkowski said she was “encouraged” by the bipartisan discharge petitions. 

“That’s kind of a big step. That’s not waiting for the president to give an endorsement. That’s not waiting for Speaker Johnson to say this is what we’re going to do,” Murkowski said. 

“At some point in time, you’ve got to start saying what you’re for, right? And so that’s the momentum that I think we’re seeing over in the House. … You’re seeing people put their name behind a proposal, and that, I think, shows momentum,” she added.