(NEXSTAR) – The predictions are in for winter weather – and they are very different depending on where you live.
The Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its long-range forecast for December 2025 through February 2026 on Thursday. The outlook tells two different stories: a cold, wet winter for some states versus a hot, dry season for others.
It’s those up north most likely to see frigid winter weather, according to NOAA’s predictions. A band of states from Washington to Michigan is leaning toward seeing colder-than-normal weather starting next month. These states always lean colder than the south when winter rolls around, but the forecast for this winter suggests it’ll be even colder than they’re used to.
The inverse is true for the southern half of the country up toward the mid-Atlantic, which is favored to see warmer-than-average temperatures. The Southwest and Florida have the highest chances of seeing unseasonably warm weather.
The precipitation outlook also predicts two different fates: wet weather and snow up north, but dry patterns down south.
The future is harder to predict for much of middle of the country, shaded in white on both forecast maps. The forecast in those states is more of a toss-up; it could be wet and cold or it could be dry and warm.
The newly released winter weather predictions are consistent with La Niña, which officially began last month. La Niña tends to bring wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, we typically see dry, warm weather in the southern states.
La Niña also tends to make drought worse in the South and Southwest, and that’s likely going to be the case this year, according to NOAA. Forecasters expect drought to continue in parts of the Southwest, deep South and even parts of the Northeast.
Parts of Texas, Louisiana and neighboring states are expected to develop drought conditions as we get further into winter.
Cold Thanksgiving holiday predicted for most states
Millions of Americans could get a taste of winter before the season even starts. NOAA is warning cooler-than-normal temperatures could start as early as Nov. 25 for Midwestern and Plains states.
Over Thanksgiving weekend the cold weather is expected to extend south into Texas and the Gulf, as well as east toward the East Coast and New England.
“This pattern change favors a transition to more winter-like conditions across the Northwestern, Central, and Eastern U.S., including much below temperatures and the potential for heavy snow,” national meteorologists said.