The longest shutdown in American history is over, but another one might be just around the bend.
Democrats are fuming that the bipartisan Senate deal to reopen the government after 43 days did nothing to address the expiring ObamaCare subsidies that stood as their key demand throughout the impasse.
Now, with funding for large parts of the government set to expire Jan. 30, a growing chorus of liberals in the Capitol is already urging fellow Democrats to use that looming deadline to pressure Republicans to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits — even if it creates another impasse that leads to another shutdown.
“I think we hold the line this time, absolutely — we have to,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) said. “If we’re not helping people with their health care, then you’re going to see a lot of people either not have health care, get sick and die. Or you’re going to see the costs get much more expensive for everybody else.”
“We have to,” he continued, “and this time, I hope the senators have a little more courage to hold the line.”
“This is still a salient issue,” Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) echoed. “The pressure is not off the Republicans to fix this health care issue.”
Republicans, too, say they fully expect another fierce fight over the fate of the ACA tax credits — one that could very well force another government closure.
“Everyone realizes, under current law, another shutdown could occur on Jan. 30,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus.
Harris said he’s pushing legislation to automatically fund the government in two-week increments during protracted disagreements over spending bills.
“I hope we take that kind of issue up,” he said.
The early jockeying reflects the frustrations within the Democratic Party after a small group of Senate Democrats bucked their own leadership to support a bipartisan deal to reopen the government without Republican concessions on the ACA tax credits. Those subsidies were created with the passage of ObamaCare in 2010, then expanded by the Biden administration during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 and 2022.
It’s the expanded benefits that Democrats are seeking to extend beyond Jan. 1, when they’re set to sunset. Without congressional action, more than 20 million Americans will face a spike in premiums and other out-of-pocket health care costs.
Republican leaders, who have sought for years to repeal ObamaCare in its entirety, have little appetite for propping up a law they loathe. With that in mind, some Democrats see the Jan. 30 budget deadline as the next pressure point to try to force Republicans to tackle the controversial issue by withholding Democratic votes from any spending bill that fails to address it — the same tactic that led to the Oct. 1 shutdown.
Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) said the decision is a no-brainer.
“This is so essential to the future of Americans,” she said. “You’re talking about 24 million Americans who are at risk of their premiums rising two to three times.”
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said the Republicans’ historic opposition to the ACA signals the issue will remain unresolved in January — and another battle over the subsidies is forthcoming.
“My sense is that there will be [another ACA fight],” she said.
The Democrats’ hardball strategy broke down this month, when eight senators joined the Republicans to reopen the government without a resolution on the ACA cliff. And it’s those same senators — not Democrats in the House — who will likely determine whether the government shuts down again.
Even so, Democrats think they might have even more leverage in January because, for most of the ObamaCare participants who do keep their coverage under the program, the higher costs will already have kicked in by then. Others will have opted to drop their coverage altogether.
“It’ll be a reality, actually, by that time,” Chu said. “And people will be even more outraged at that point, because they will have made the decision whether to continue on with health insurance at all — or not.”
Any congressional action on the subsidies would run into a calendar problem. The open enrollment period for the ACA marketplace began Nov. 1 and closes Dec. 15 for coverage beginning Jan. 1; the enrollment window extends to Jan. 15 for coverage beginning Feb. 1. That means those who opt out of coverage because of the higher costs risk going uninsured for the entirety of 2026.
Even so, Democrats say there’s a simple solution: Change the law to reopen the enrollment window under the lower rates.
“That would have to be addressed, but there is a way to do it,” Chu said. “And we’re determined to make it happen.”
Vargas noted the Trump administration has already altered the enrollment window by shortening it to nine weeks — a change that will take effect next year. If Trump can do it unilaterally, he said, then Congress can do it by statute.
“It’s not a rocket that’s gone away; it’s just a law,” Vargas said. “So you just change the damn law.”
How Democrats approach the Jan. 30 deadline will depend on whether GOP leaders address the ACA subsidies before then. While Republicans have spent years attacking ObamaCare — and the party’s leaders in the Capitol are facing pressure from conservatives to let the subsidies expire — there are also a number of centrist Republicans clamoring for leadership to tackle the issue to prevent the spike in premiums from hitting their constituents.
Many of those centrists are facing tough reelection contests in next year’s midterms, and they haven’t been shy in warning that Republicans will get wiped out at the polls if millions of Americans see their health costs skyrocket.
“We need to deal, as Republicans, with the health care issue. We just can’t let the ObamaCare thing lapse and do nothing, and people have no health care or have to pay double,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) told Fox News recently. “That’s wrong, it’s counterproductive, it’s going to hurt us politically.”
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) has introduced legislation to extend the tax credits for one year — a bill endorsed by 14 other moderate Republicans, almost all of them in battleground districts. And Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, wrote a letter this week to the top leaders in the Senate — Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) — urging the leaders to get moving on a legislative fix that both parties can get behind.
“Time is running short. Our sense of urgency cannot be greater. Our willingness to cooperate has no limits,” Fitzpatrick wrote just hours after the shutdown had ended. “We urge you to work with us to craft a bipartisan solution that is designed to pass both chambers and become law, so that we can help those who need it most.”
Some Democrats said avoiding a January shutdown will likely hinge on how successful moderate Republicans such as Fitzpatrick are in convincing Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to extend the subsidies despite the conservative opposition.
“It depends on these vulnerable House Republicans, who are not going to be able to go back to their constituents without telling them that they’ve done something on health care,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said.
Yet there’s plenty of lingering tensions between the parties when it comes to social safety net programs, especially in the wake of the Republicans’ tax and spending megabill passed over the summer, which slashed low-income benefits under programs like Medicaid and food stamps.
Heading into January’s budget debate, some Democrats simply don’t trust Republicans to honor any commitments related to ObamaCare.
“When we come to Jan. 30, we will see what progress has been made,” DeLauro said. “Johnson said he won’t guarantee a vote in the House. The Senate says they will have a vote.
“Do I trust any of them? Hell no,” she added. “Hell no.”
Sudiksha Kochi contributed.