The Senate bill to reopen the government is expected to pass the House on Wednesday, but there are a few key lawmakers in both parties who will make or break the vote as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) navigates a razor-thin Republican majority in the lower chamber.
Nearly all House Democrats oppose the measure, which passed the Senate on Monday, after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and other party leaders decried the lack of action to extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. That means Johnson can afford only a tiny number of defections from within his conference, which so far has largely supported the measure.
As with any vote in the House, surprises can happen. And there are a handful of mercurial lawmakers in both parties who have yet to announce how they’ll vote when the bill hits the floor Wednesday evening.
Here are the key lawmakers to watch — bill supporters, opponents and wild cards alike — during Wednesday’s vote.
Centrist Democrats
There are several moderate Democrats likely to cross the aisle — and provide Johnson with some cushion — as the pain of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history intensifies.
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is one of them. He supported a Republican stopgap measure in September that would have funded the government through Nov. 21, arguing then that a shutdown would have “immediate effects” on his constituents — particularly federal workers, small businesses and Americans who rely on food assistance.
He’s also ripped his party for using the shutdown as leverage to advance its health care demands.
A Golden spokesperson told The Hill in a statement the lawmaker’s position on “using a government shutdown as a legislative strategy has been clear and has not changed.”
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) is another. She missed the vote in September but wrote in an Oct. 18 op-ed that she “could not in good conscience vote to shut down the government” and that both parties “need to prioritize working across the aisle.”
Other centrist Democrats to keep an eye on include Texas Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, both of whom face tough reelection contests next year in the wake of the GOP’s move to redraw the Texas map in favor of Republicans.
Gonzalez opposed Republican stopgap bills in both March and September. He has said the ObamaCare subsidies are critical in his district, and he opposed the September bill because it left the issue unresolved.
Cuellar in a Nov. 9 social media post said the package negotiated in the Senate by centrists was the “most meaningful movement toward compromise in weeks.” He added, “It’s past time to put country over party and get our government working again for the American people.”
The GOP maverick
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a conservative fiscal hawk and one of Johnson’s biggest detractors, is expected to vote no on the Senate funding measure.
Massie has a long history of opposing government funding bills, even those crafted by his party, to protest levels of spending he considers to be unsustainable. He was one of two House Republicans to oppose the GOP’s continuing resolution (CR) in September, because it continued spending at current levels — largely adopted under former President Biden — without the steep cuts he favors.
He has called for Congress to pass 12 individual appropriation bills, rather than temporary measures combining the entire federal budget into one large package.
House Freedom Caucus
Johnson can count on the support of the House Freedom Caucus, the far-right group that’s historically defied party leadership on massive spending bills, citing a preference for deeper cuts.
Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) told The Hill on Tuesday he is “most likely yes” on the Senate funding measure.
He had concerns that a provision preventing the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-based products would be stripped from the measure. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) led efforts to remove the provision, but they were unsuccessful.
Harris said he doesn’t see “any other problems with the bill.”
“Obviously, we’re still finishing looking over the last elements of it, but I think it’s going to have a pretty smooth passage in the House tomorrow,” he said.
He also said he’d be “very surprised” if any House Freedom Caucus members opposed the bill.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), the caucus’s policy chair, wrote in a Nov. 10 post that he would support the measure, calling it a “monumental strategic & substantive win” for Republicans. “As always a few things I’d change, but flat spending + January CR date & no COVID credits mark full repudiation of Dem’s political shut down AND devotion to enriching health insurance execs,” he said.
Wild cards
There are a few wild cards who could complicate Johnson’s chances of passing the Senate spending package.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), for instance, was the only other Republican to join Massie in opposing the GOP’s CR in September. Her protest at the time seemed to have more to do with the span of the bill, rather than the substance.
“I am willing to vote for a CR of any duration—short or long—the least damage to the Republic, but I cannot support one that ends funding right before a major holiday to jam us with an Omnibus,” Spartz said then in a statement.
But the current package negotiated in the Senate would fund military construction, veterans’ affairs, the Department of Agriculture and the legislative branch through Sept. 30 and the rest of government through Jan. 30 — after the major holidays have passed.
She’s been mum so far on how she will vote this time around. But even if Spartz comes out opposing the bill, Johnson and Republican leaders could work to earn her vote, as they have done in the past.
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) is another potential wild card. He said in September he was “out on another CR for the sake of more government,” but he ended up voting for the measure. He has not announced his position on the Senate budget agreement ahead of Wednesday’s House vote.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is another question mark. While she has called for an immediate reopening of the government, she’s also demanded that Republicans address the expiring ACA subsidies. Her office did not respond this week to questions about how she’ll vote on Wednesday.